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When I talk about podcasting, people often ask me, “Is the audience for podcasting ever going to be substantial?”

Often I answer, “Do most people you know have cell phones?” Usually they nod enthusiastically. Then I explain how the coming generation of cell phones will include not only wireless internet connections, but MP3 players and tools for subscribing to, downloading, and storing podcasts.

Well, it’s happening…

See: “Analyst leaks iPod phone launch details.”

Although that article focuses on downloading and replaying songs, it would work for any type of file, including podcasts. Plus, Apple iTunes already has some basic podcast-subscribing functionality.

On Aug. 16, David Berlind wrote in ZDnet: “‘Podcasting’ only works if we limit the the role of myriad syndicated audio creations to portable file players… I suspect that “podcasting” is destined to be a global mass medium much more quickly than any of its current constituent parts can scale up. Not individual shows, mind you, but the medium in total in all its garrulous and granular glory.

“…We may need to soon drop the “pod” part of podcasting in favor of “mobile”- or “cell”-casting. Because despite the phenomenal growth of iPods, the ultimate device for listening to podcasts will soon be cell phones. The only way the iPod will remain true to the podcasting name is if it gains wireless broadband IP support, in which case it’s a trussed up cell phone anyway.”

I doubt the audience for podcasting will ever be as quite as huge as that of broadcast media, or downloadable music. Still, it’s growing fast – and podcast-enabled cell phones will only make it bigger.

…Not that audience size tells the story with podcasting – as with weblogs. With niche media, it’s more about who listens, rather than how many people listen. This isn’t a popularity contest. Which is one reason why I enjoy podcasts and weblogs so much.

With podcasts, though, the key hitch has been accessibility. So far, it’s still a mostly realm for people who are willing to futz with their computers and buy separate devices. That definitely limits to the audience, since most people aren’t willing to do anything more complex than turn on their TV or visit a web site to access content.

In that regard, iTunes’ rudimentary new podcatching features have started bridge that gap to the legions of non-geeks. However, when podcatching becomes a routine, non-geeky, user-friendly aspect of cell phones (an already indispensible device for millions of non-geeks) that’s when the numbers will climb – I think.

Of course, as the podcast-listening audience becomes significant enough to attract the attention of mainstream advertisers and media organizations, the ads dollars will flow there – which will be good and bad, I’m guessing.

True, most podcasts are fairly unpolished now. A lot of people dislike amateurishness, and don’t listen to podcasts for that reason. However, in my opinion this medium is incredibly diverse and rich compared to broadcast media. I rarely watch TV or listen to commercial radio these days, because the overbearing commercials and lowest-common-denominator content ruin it for me. Despite the slick production of commercial broadcasting, my personal opinion is that the content quality there mostly sucks.

However, the relative ease with which podcasts can be created and distributed is a key difference. It will always be easier and less costly to produce a podcast than a show for broadcast radio. Therefore I think diversity will continue to be a key trait of this medium, despite the inevitable influx of ad revenue.

I’m not saying ad revenue is bad, either. I’m definitely no anti-business. Maybe advertising in podcasts will take on a very different quality than radio advertising. Who knows. I would hope so, anyway.

Now I wonder if that iPod cell phone allows you to record, edit, and upload MP3 audio files…. Hmmm….